Odds of Fed hike slim; credit tightens; holidays boon for retail?

In the latest episode of the CRE Exchange podcast, Omar Eltorai, US Director of Research, and Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst of Altus Group, discuss the latest FOMC minutes and the probability of a final rate hike for the year, findings from the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) on credit access, which indicates a decline in expectations for credit availability, the increase in permits and starts for multi-family housing, mixed news from major retail chains with a glimpse of hope for the holiday season, and much more!

Key Takeaways:

(00:58) The latest US Leading Economic Index

(02:12) FOMC minutes (Nov. 21 release) with odds for an interest rate hike before end of year

(04:46) A view into consumer expectations for credit demand and credit approval

(10:26) The latest read on building permits, housing starts and home sales

(13:21) Earnings reports from Walmart, Target, Macy’s, TJX, Home Depot and Lowes

(22:31) Capital markets update

(26:43) Q4 2023 CRE Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey results

(34:26) Upcoming data releases Omar and Cole are keeping an eye on over the next two weeks

Resources Mentioned:

Omar Eltorai -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/

Cole Perry -

https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/

Altus Group -

https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/

US Leading Economic Index -

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators

SCE Credit Access Survey -

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/

FOMC minutes -

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/

US and Canada CRE Industry Conditions and Sentiment survey results (Q4 results to be released December 5, 2023) -

https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-register/

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