Macro Voices MacroVoices #505 Michael Every: Does Anyone Remember PMIs?
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Nov 6, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, Michael Every, a global strategist at Rabobank, delves into the evolving dynamics of US-China relations and the implications for global markets. He analyzes China's export controls and recent geopolitical tensions, illustrating how these factors influence military and economic strategies. Michael also forecasts the bifurcation of supply chains and highlights the growing importance of dollar stablecoins. With thoughts on investment strategies, he urges listeners to navigate the shifting landscape between Team US and Team China.
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Selective Bifurcation Of Global Trade
- The world will bifurcate selectively: commoditized goods keep trading, strategic sectors split into competing tech and supply-chain blocs.
- Upstream inputs and key industries will see most of the decoupling.
US Has Financial Strength But Lost Production
- The US is weakened by decades of offshoring and lost productive capacity, limiting its leverage on China.
- But the US retains financial, high-end tech, and military projection advantages to contest influence.
US Will Target China's Supply Dependencies
- The US can target China's resource dependencies by disrupting commodity flows and leveraging naval/financial power.
- Expect economic and potentially military statecraft to be used to constrain China's imports.