Fintech Insider Podcast by 11:FS 1049. Insights: Can you trade the future? The rise of prediction markets
Mar 26, 2026
Kate Knibbs, WIRED writer on culture and finance, and Emily Nicolle, Bloomberg digital finance reporter, unpack the rise of prediction markets. They explain how these platforms work. They cover regulation, Wall Street interest, manipulation risks, resolution headaches, geographic limits, and fintech integration. The conversation maps legal fights, commercial uses, and what it would take for wider adoption.
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Wall Street Wants Prediction Markets For Hedging
- Wall Street sees event contracts as hedging tools across weather, commodities, and company risk while sportsbooks view them as a competitive threat.
- Emily Nicolle gave an ice-cream seller example using contracts to hedge cold summer risk and noted ICE invested in Polymarket for market data.
Rapid Growth But Low Public Awareness
- Growth is strong but user awareness remains low; markets currently skew toward sophisticated and institutional participants.
- Kate Knibbs cited a Gen Z poll where only 12% knew prediction markets despite hockey-stick growth and rising institutional presence.
Markets Can Out-Perform Polls When Liquid
- Prediction markets have outperformed polls and forecasters in several cases, especially for elections and economic data, but accuracy depends on liquidity.
- Emily Nicolle noted Polymarket called many races ahead of polls, while low-volume niche markets often miss.