00:00:00 – Intro: Family, Travel, and Game Theory

00:00:55 – The AI CapEx Arms Race: Disruption or Survival

00:02:01 – Tech Risk vs. Consumer Staples: The Discount Rate Problem

00:02:49 – Private Credit Incentives: A Race to the Bottom

00:04:45 – The 2021 Vintage: Deteriorating Loans and Refinancing Stress

00:06:52 – History Repeats: Rome, Julius Caesar, and Modern Populism

00:10:02 – The Minsky Hypothesis: Three Stages of the Business Cycle

00:11:55 – Credit Contraction: From Animal Spirits to Turtle Shells

00:14:02 – Taming the Cycle: Monetary Policy Failures

00:16:58 – AI Overinvestment: Where is the Promised Transformation?

00:18:49 – Market Psychology Shift: From "Buy the Dip" to "Sell the Rally"

Connect with Us Online:

Game Theory of AI, Credit Cycle and Mom