The Take Why Iran believes it can outlast the US
11 snips
Mar 31, 2026 
Alex Vatanka, a senior Middle East analyst focused on Iran, explains why Tehran believes it can endure this war. He discusses how the conflict shifted power toward hardliners and the IRGC. He examines Iran’s command-and-control, risks of overconfidence, leverage like the Strait of Hormuz, and what demands might end the fighting.
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Iran Measures Success By Survival Not Defeat
- Iran judges survival, not victory, as success after losing leaders and enduring strikes.
- Alex Vatanka says the regime remains intact, controls territory, fires missiles and controls the Strait of Hormuz, so Tehran views attrition as acceptable.
Khamenei's Death Shifted Power Toward Hardliners
- Khamenei's death removed the longstanding balancing figure, boosting hardliners and the IRGC's influence.
- Vatanka explains reformists now manage daily services while hardliners set strategic domestic and foreign policy.
Iran's Military Still Shows Cohesion Under Fire
- Despite initial decentralised reports, Iran shows substantial command cohesion under stress.
- Vatanka notes some disconnects from assassinations, but overall actions suggest preplanned scenarios and coordinated responses.