Open Circuit

Clean energy didn’t collapse in 2025. It adapted.

24 snips
Feb 27, 2026
They unpack how capital flowed selectively in 2025 amid shifting tariffs, FIAC guidance, and policy whiplash. They highlight why renewables and batteries captured most investment while manufacturing stalled. They explore evolving deal structures, tax-credit safe harbors, and how storage is stacking value to outcompete gas for reliability.
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INSIGHT

Capital Flowed Selectively In 2025

  • Capital flowed selectively in 2025 with project finance and batteries taking ~80% of activity while manufacturing investment fell ~20% and $22B of projects cancelled.
  • Crux data shows developers front-loaded safe-harbor projects in H1 to lock tax credits, creating a build pipeline but squeezing new entrants who face higher capital costs.
INSIGHT

Policy Whiplash Raises Financing Hurdles

  • Policy uncertainty raises cost of capital and elongates due diligence, which favors sponsors with balance sheets and hurts new entrants.
  • Caroline Golan warned that ambiguity around tariffs and FIAC drives up financing costs and can remove gigawatts of projects that no longer pencil.
ADVICE

Stress Test Tax Credit And FIAC Risks

  • Stress-test balance sheets and tax-compliance risk when pricing tax-credit trades or taking FIAC exposure.
  • Jigar says buyers now demand strong sponsor balance sheets or insurance because FIAC adds a six-year compliance liability.
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