What's Next with Philip Meissner Every Decision Is a Bet: How Smart Leaders Think
Most people think good outcomes mean good decisions. But according to Annie Duke, that’s one of the biggest mistakes leaders make.
In this episode, Philip Meissner speaks with Annie Duke, former World Series of Poker champion and author of Thinking in Bets, about why decision-making under uncertainty is one of the most critical skills in leadership today.
Drawing on poker, behavioral science, and real-world business examples, Annie explains how cognitive biases distort our judgment and how leaders can make smarter, more resilient decisions.
Key insights from the episode:
• Why judging decisions by outcomes leads to bad leadership
• The hidden bias that makes us blame luck for failures and credit ourselves for wins
• Why great decision makers are willing to change their minds
• How “thinking in bets” helps leaders navigate uncertainty
👉 Watch the full conversation to learn how the best decision makers think.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:42 Why Decision Making Matters Today
02:02 Decisive vs Reckless Leadership
03:39 Why Changing Your Mind Matters
05:50 Poker Lessons for Leaders
09:35 The Problem with Outcome Bias
13:12 Improving Decision Quality
20:50 Thinking in Bets Explained
26:34 Incentives and Decision Quality
30:32 Annie Poker Journey & Self-Serving Bias
37:11 Progress Over Perfection Mindset
38:04 Why the Future of Decisions Is Bright
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Connect with Annie Duke:
"What’s Next with Philip Meissner“
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