Multipolarity The Day After The Revolution: Venezuela’s Coming Chaos
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Jan 8, 2026 This discussion dives headfirst into the recent U.S. kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro, exposing the chaos and geopolitical shifts in play. The hosts explore criticisms of intervention and the risky balancing act of regime change, questioning the motives centered around oil and U.S. dominance. They highlight the potential backlash from coercive policies and the elusive search for a credible alternative to Maduro. The episode wraps with crucial implications for U.S. standing in the region and the complicated dynamics involving China and Russia.
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No Credible Alternative Made Intervention Hard
- Pilkington notes the U.S. never found a credible domestic alternative to Maduro despite decades of effort.
- He concludes that a lack of viable opposition explains prior U.S. restraint and the risks of current action.
Avoid Coercion If You Want Stable Deals
- Do not assume kidnapped leaders make diplomatic deals easier; coercion erodes credibility and empowers rivals.
- Expect elites to fear loss of legitimacy and for security actors to exploit instability.
Domestic Politics Shape Foreign Coercion
- Andrew Collingwood argues U.S. domestic politics (local constituencies) lock in foreign policy choices.
- He says showy operations help Washington sell policy to domestic audiences and maintain political cover.