NZ Everyday Investor Rupert Carlyon / Banks Suffocating NZ Economy? Ep 509
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Feb 15, 2026 Rupert Carlyon, founder of kōura Wealth who comments on KiwiSaver, property and banking, breaks down how big Australian banks shape Kiwi mortgages and politics. He discusses OCR outlook, sticky inflation, housing stagnation risks and why banks profit from higher rates. They also touch on AI’s impact on business and Bitcoin as a US dollar hedge.
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Banks' Dominance Shapes The Economy
- Australian-owned banks dominate New Zealand's mortgage market and shape media, politics, house prices and the economy.
- That concentration risks profit-driven lending decisions that can suppress productive investment and growth.
Tech Could Be Deflationary Counterforce
- Technology (AI) can reduce labour demand, easing wage pressures and countering bank-driven drag on inflation.
- That may create deflationary forces masked by continual credit expansion.
Banks' Profits Persist In Recession
- New Zealand banks earn unusually high returns and write back impairments even during recession.
- That performance shows low risk appetite and fuels excessive profitability at the expense of the wider economy.