The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - March 10, 2026
Mar 10, 2026
Markets swung with morning optimism about a war ending, then cooled after reports of mines in the Strait of Hormuz. A quick economic check covers small business sentiment and a surprise uptick in existing home sales. The strategic importance of the Strait and its potential GDP hit are explored. Interest rates and a steepening yield curve get attention. The conversation also looks at defense companies and how they adapt to cheap drone threats.
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Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Moved Markets
- Geopolitical headlines drove an intraday rally that reversed after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brian Szytel notes the Strait handles ~20% of global oil/LNG and 30% of helium, so disruptions meaningfully raise volatility and economic risk.
Small Business Optimism And Housing Signals
- Economic data were modest but notable: NFIB small business optimism came in at 98.8 and existing home sales beat expectations above 4 million.
- Brian says the NFIB is near long-run average and falling rates may be thawing housing after a prolonged freeze.
Market Reversal After Mine Reports
- Brian recounts markets moving from gains to flat as investors digested reports of mines and the resulting energy concerns.
- He describes the day's close: Dow down ~30 points and overall market essentially flat after the reversal.