Macro Voices MacroVoices #511 Robert Kahn: Geopolitical Outlook For 2026
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Dec 18, 2025 
Join Robert Kahn, a geopolitical analyst from Eurasia Group, as he explores the complex landscape shaping our world. Kahn discusses the future of tariffs and their political implications leading to 2026. He emphasizes the shift from tariffs to direct industrial policy under the current administration, and highlights affordability as a crucial issue for the midterms. Delve into the geopolitical risks involving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China relations, along with the potential outcomes of the upcoming Fed chair selection. Kahn’s insights expose the intricate ties between geopolitics and market volatility.
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Ukraine Talks Unlikely To Produce Quick Peace
- Current Ukraine talks are unlikely to yield a near-term peace; maximalist demands leave sides far apart.
- The war will likely continue and keep upward pressure on energy prices via attacks on energy infrastructure.
Europe May Shoulder Ukraine's Financial Burden
- If the U.S. reduces support for Ukraine, Europe will face growing pressure to finance reconstruction, possibly using frozen Russian assets.
- Expect Europeans to step up leadership on financing and sustainment if U.S. involvement wanes.
NATO Withdrawal Remains A Tail Risk
- Withdrawal from NATO is a tail risk given current administration views, but advisors still value alliances.
- Institutional ties may weaken, raising long-term geopolitical uncertainty.