Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 18th, 2025
6 snips
Nov 18, 2025 
Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, analyzes the resilience of the U.S. consumer amidst rising credit stress and discusses the optimistic projections for AI's impact on earnings. Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, forecasts payroll dynamics and explores the delicate balance between growth and inflation concerns. Kay Herr, CIO at J.P. Morgan, offers insights on long-dated corporate debt and Fed policy expectations. Lastly, Rep. French Hill talks about tariff dividend checks and congressional priorities on housing affordability.
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Different Sectors Need Different Rate Relief
- Recognize different parts of the economy need different policy support; private credit and small/mid businesses may need ~200bps of cuts.
- Shalett cautions that such cuts are unlikely, so plan portfolios for limited easing.
Jobs Bounce Not Boom
- Stephanie Roth expects a modest pickup in payrolls and upward revisions to weak summer data, pushing three-month averages higher.
- She frames 2026 growth as slightly above trend, with inflation remaining a level problem rather than falling without recession.
Prices Won't Fall Without Recession
- Lowering the price level is unlikely without a large recession, so the best path is 'growing into' higher prices via modest income gains.
- Roth notes incomes grew about 29% since the pandemic, which helps contextualize higher price levels.