TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast #739: Quarterly Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis
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Apr 25, 2026 
Matthew Mežinskis, an economist tracking monetary base dynamics and Bitcoin's power-law behavior. He discusses Bitcoin's power-curve mechanics and why its growth is decelerating. He updates global monetary base totals and contrasts base money trends with Wall Street's accelerating exponential returns. He also explores geopolitical risks, digital authoritarianism, and custody vulnerabilities.
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Bitcoin Growth Is A Power Law Not Exponential
- Bitcoin follows a power-law growth curve, not a straight exponential trend like gold or stocks.
- Matthew Mežinskis shows a 96% R² fit and explains Bitcoin's growth rate decelerates over time, producing bigger upside volatility than downside.
Bitcoin Doubles With Network Age Not Constant CAGR
- Bitcoin's historical rule: a ~13% increase in its age corresponds to a price doubling, currently ~40% CAGR.
- Mežinskis translates 13% of Bitcoin's ~6,000 days into ~800 days (~2.2 years) as the doubling cadence.
Bitcoin Priced In Gold Shows Large Relative Discount
- Bitcoin priced in gold still adheres to the power trend and shows Bitcoin dominance over other exponentials.
- He highlights Bitcoin/gold at ~16 oz per BTC while the 10th percentile trend implies ~37 oz, signaling relative undervaluation.