It's A Numbers Game with Ryan Girdusky It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind Starmer’s Collapse, Farage’s Rise & Labour’s Leadership Crisis
Feb 13, 2026
James Johnson, pollster and president of J&L Partners who advised Theresa May, breaks down the numbers behind Labour’s faltering standing. He discusses collapsing approval ratings, internal party turmoil and key resignations. He also explores Nigel Farage’s steady rise, Reform UK’s threat in by-elections and what upcoming local contests reveal about Labour’s vulnerability.
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Starmer's Authority Is Severely Wounded
- Keir Starmer's approval has collapsed to about 19% despite a large parliamentary majority.
- Recent scandals around Peter Mandelson and cabinet departures have severely wounded Starmer's political authority.
Leadership Change In Labour Is Difficult
- James Johnson says Starmer likely survives short-term but has bought only limited time.
- Labour's leadership change is hard because challengers need about 80 MPs to back a candidate on paper.
Mandelson's Influence And McSweeney's Operational Role
- James Johnson recounts Peter Mandelson's long influence advising Labour leaders and Starmer.
- He contrasts that with Morgan McSweeney's close operational role, whose resignation creates a practical vacuum.