Daniel Davis Deep Dive Prof John Mearsheimer: Element of DESPERATION for PUTIN
Jan 29, 2026
Prof John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago political scientist known for realist analysis of war and great power politics. He dissects Russia’s demands, explains why diplomacy is often PR while battles decide outcomes, and warns of Putin’s growing desperation and possible escalation. The conversation then shifts to Iran, limits of strikes and regime-change prospects, and regional risks of retaliation.
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Diplomacy As Kabuki Theater
- Mearsheimer calls diplomacy here largely kabuki theater serving public relations, not substantive negotiation.
- He predicts any real settlement will be an armistice produced by battlefield events, not pre-emptive diplomacy.
Russian Desperation Is Rising
- He sees Russia preparing for a long conflict but also growing desperation because the war has lasted far longer than expected.
- That desperation raises incentives inside Russia to consider escalatory measures, including nuclear options as debated by some strategists.
This Is A War Of Attrition
- Mearsheimer frames the conflict as a war of attrition where casualty exchange matters more than territory.
- He believes Russia is bleeding Ukraine and that Ukraine faces deep manpower and morale problems.