Effectively Wild Episode 1754: Never Tell Me the Odds

With the postseason around the corner, Meg Rowley and guest co-host Ben Clemens discuss the playoff picture, how the Seattle Mariners got where they are, which team Ben would prefer to see his Cardinals match up against in the NL Wild Card, and the biggest surprises of the season. Then they discuss Ben’s recent work assessing FanGraphs’ playoff odds, what the odds do well and less-well, what kinds of teams they tend to be too low on or overestimate, and how the model could improve. They also offer some theories about why we seem to struggle with probabilistic thinking, look back on what they’ll miss most about the 2021 regular season, and share some brief Cy Young thoughts.

Audio intro: The White Stripes, “Black Math”
Audio outro: The Decemberists, “The Mariner’s Revenge Song“

Ben Lindbergh’s baby announcement
Link to Ben’s piece assessing FanGraphs’ playoff odds
Link to Ben Clemens’s follow-up playoff odds piece
Link to Jay Jaffe’s Mariners-themed Team Entropy update
Link to Jake Mailhot on the performances behind the Mariners’ success
Link to Dan Szymborski’s latest ZiPS stretch run projections
Link to Corey Brock at The Athletic’s piece on whether the Mariners are good or lucky

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