Macro Mondays Dalio: "The World Order Has Broken Down"
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Feb 16, 2026 They unpack Ray Dalio's view that the global order is shifting and what that means for geopolitics after the Munich Security Conference. AI-driven market scares and heavy capex in hyperscalers get a close look. Inflation oddities, timing for rate cuts, and liquidity impacts from the Treasury General Account are debated. Gold, Russia reintegration risks, and now-casting for commodities, bonds, and tech rounds out the discussion.
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Don't Ban All CapEx Investments
- Avoid blanket rules that never invest in firms undertaking capex, because transformative tech requires upfront spending.
- Andreas Steno Larsen warns that refusing all capex would have kept us in obsolete technologies.
Inflation Trend Is Softer Than Consensus
- Recent US inflation prints have mostly come in softer than expected across many reports.
- Andreas Steno Larsen flags a transportation-services outlier but sees an overall benign inflation trend.
Watch Fed Leadership For Rate Moves
- Expect rate moves to hinge on Fed leadership and meetings, not immediate market hopes.
- Andreas Steno Larsen suggests cuts are unlikely before the new chair's first meeting in June.