Kitco NEWS

"The Sobering Up Phase": Why Ted Oakley Says A 15% Sell-Off Is Possible

Feb 6, 2026
Guest
Ted Oakley
Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner at Oxbow Advisors with decades in macro and value investing, lays out a “sobering up” market thesis. He discusses a possible 10–15% pullback, how AI capex shifts tech from cash generators to capital-intensive firms, and why he is rotating into income plays like natural gas pipelines, big pharma and consumer staples.
Ask episode
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
INSIGHT

Changing Of The Guard Could Trigger A Sell-Off

  • Ted Oakley sees a market 'changing of the guard' as economic weakness forces valuations to reconcile with reality.
  • He warns a 10–15% broad sell-off this year is plausible and expects high intra-year volatility.
INSIGHT

AI Shift Turns Cash Cows Into Capital Hogs

  • Oakley argues AI turned cash-generating tech firms into capital-intensive companies, changing profit dynamics.
  • He warns heavy capex and debt use will alter margins and investor expectations for big tech.
ADVICE

Trade Volatility, Don’t Blindly Buy Indexes

  • Learn to trade volatility: take profits at highs and redeploy at lows rather than just buy broad ETFs.
  • Prepare to own the right stocks at the right times because this year will be volatile both ways.
Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode
Get the app