MRKT Call Market Volatility Will Continue Until Morale Improves
Apr 2, 2026
Liz Thomas, SoFi strategist and newsletter author, offers data-driven market and sector analysis. She breaks down oil market mechanics, explains why energy looks more attractive now, and links geopolitical strains at the Strait of Hormuz to ongoing market pressure. She also discusses odd moves in gold, tech valuation dynamics, and how earnings guidance and revenue risks play into positioning.
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Backwardation Signals Shorter Oil Shock Expectations
- Strong backwardation in oil futures suggests markets expect the supply shock to be temporary even as spot spikes.
- Liz Thomas calls rallies countertrend in a pressured market where sentiment continues to worsen.
Don't Expect Jobs Data To Move Markets Immediately
- Do not expect immediate market reactions to the upcoming nonfarm payroll print because markets are closed and geopolitics are dominating.
- Liz Thomas recommends treating a modest positive print as likely to be written off and not market-moving until Monday.
Q1 CPI Seasonal Effect And Lagging Pass-Throughs
- First-quarter CPI tends to be seasonally hotter and supply-driven ISM prices-paid prints often feed into CPI with a lag.
- Liz notes businesses face higher transportation and energy costs but shelter still dominates CPI composition.
