Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Larry Johnson: U.S. Attack on Kharg Island Will Destroy the Gulf States
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Mar 15, 2026 
Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and State Department counterterrorism official, offers sharp analysis of risks from strikes on Kharg Island. He discusses why hitting Iran’s energy sites invites broader Gulf retaliation. He outlines limits of U.S. military options, threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and how regional alignments could shift due to escalating attacks.
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Strait Closure Risks Global Energy And Food Shock
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz risks cutting 20% of world oil and 25% of LNG, triggering global inflation and potential food shortages.
- Johnson links a 35% drop in urea exports to disrupted fertilizer supply during planting season, raising famine risk.
Military Options Against Iran Have Unacceptable Costs
- The U.S. cannot militarily defeat Iran without prohibitive losses; air power won't suffice and ground invasion faces resupply and attrition problems.
- Johnson notes modern drone/artillery threats make large troop movements extremely vulnerable.
Hitting Iranian Oil Invites Gulfwide Energy Retaliation
- Attacking Iran's oil terminals would invite reciprocal strikes on Gulf states' energy infrastructure, risking regional economic collapse.
- Johnson warns Iran identified at least 13 Gulf targets and threatened retaliation if oil facilities are hit.
