Eurodollar University The Trillion Dollar Private Credit Time Bomb Is EXPLODING
Feb 26, 2026
A deep dive into soaring private credit loss projections and rising signs of hidden distress. Discussion of asset sales at discounted prices and what their timing suggests for future market stress. Analysis of rates-market moves, yield-curve steepening, and shifting Fed-pivot timelines. Examination of public BDC pricing as the visible signal of broader private-credit strain.
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UBS Sees Much Higher Private Credit Defaults
- UBS raised its private credit adverse-case default projection from ~13% to about 15%.
- Jeff Snider highlights this jump as a big surprise that would force forced sales and push private credit toward stage two distress.
Stage One Is Turning Toward Stage Two
- Snider defines stage one as initial outflows and questions, and stage two as outflows outpacing inflows causing forced sales.
- He argues current events (Blue Owl, new sales) show progression from stage one toward stage two, not containment.
New Mountain's 94 Cent Asset Sale Signals Concern
- New Mountain sold about $477 million of assets at 94 cents on the dollar after announcing planned sales in December.
- Snider notes timing and price suggest urgency and possible repricing pressure after Blue Owl's recent forced sale.