HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the economics of war and its effect on housing
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Mar 26, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst on housing and mortgage markets, offers sharp, data-driven perspective. He discusses how war-driven oil swings and headlines create chaotic rate volatility. He covers wartime supply shocks, why mortgage forecasts changed, and how spring seasonality amplifies housing demand weakness.
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Headlines Are Driving Bond And Oil Moves
- Global headlines now move oil and the 10-year yield in tandem during the conflict.
- Logan Mohtashami points to ceasefire statements and immediate yield/oil jumps as evidence of chaotic wartime economics.
War Adds A Second Supply-Driven Inflation Shock
- Supply shocks from the war add inflationary pressure on top of already-elevated CPI and PPI.
- Logan explains this is like COVID-era supply hits, meaning input costs rise even if demand doesn't, pressuring yields higher.
Purchase Applications Show Early Softness
- Mortgage application growth showed the first signs of rate-driven softness this week, falling week-to-week and slowing year-over-year.
- Logan notes purchase apps went negative ~5% week-to-week despite positive year-over-year earlier in the year.