Jacob Shapiro: Trump Has Two Weeks to End This War

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Mar 17, 2026

Jacob Shapiro, a geopolitical analyst focused on energy, commodities, and security, outlines how the Iran war reshapes oil, fertilizer, and supply chains. He explains why fertilizer disruptions will lift food costs, why the Gulf may no longer be a safe-haven for investment, and why China’s reaction is the pivotal long-term question. He warns of a narrow window to avoid a rough second half of the year.

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INSIGHT

Strait Of Hormuz Is Irreplaceable For Oil

The Strait of Hormuz remains an unreplaceable choke point for global oil because most Gulf oil must transit it.
Building alternate pipelines or sources would take years and remain vulnerable to attacks, so ships will still need the strait.

INSIGHT

Iran's True Power Is Creating Fear At Sea

Iran's asymmetric advantage is making ship captains avoid the strait, not sinking vessels; that deterrent is hard to overcome.
Once Iran opened this playbook with drones and small attacks, risk premiums and uncertainty about future closures rise.

INSIGHT

Fertilizer Shock Will Raise Food Prices Soon

Fertilizer disruption is already locking in higher food prices that will show up in six to nine months.
Modern fertilizers support food for roughly 4 billion people, so shortages have major downstream political and humanitarian risks.

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💡With oil, food, and energy all in flux, positioning in hard assets matters more than ever. Join Wealthion's Real Assets Community: https://wealthion.com/getready

Geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro joins Maggie Lake to break down the long-term impact of the Iran War on oil, food prices, and global supply chains. Jacob explains why fertilizer disruptions have already locked in higher food prices for the next six to nine months, and draws a direct line between food price spikes and the Arab Spring. He argues Trump has a two-week window to end this war before a "really, really rough second half of the year" becomes unavoidable. Jacob also makes his contrarian case against investing in the Gulf and explains why China is the most important long-term question coming out of this conflict.

💡Worried about higher energy prices, food inflation, and geopolitical risk? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/4bpHlsB

💡With Gulf stability in question and energy markets volatile, hard assets offer a hedge. GBI Direct, The Best Way to Invest in Gold and Silver: https://gbidirect.com/?aff=WTH

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Chapters:

0:56 - Is the Strait of Hormuz Permanently Changed?

3:21 - Has Iran Opened a Dangerous New Shipping Playbook?

6:53 - Are Commodities Entering a Higher Price Era?

9:44 - Who Could Replace the Gulf as a Fertilizer Hub?

11:02 - How Long Will the Energy Shock Last?

14:15 - Do Export Bans and Resource Nationalism Come Next?

16:57 - Inflation Shock or Just More Volatility?

19:51 - Could This War Cost Trump the Midterms?

23:51 - Has the Gulf Lost Its Safe-Haven Status?

30:15 - ⭐️Wealthion Golden Nugget: China — Off-Ramp, Bystander, or Bigger Rival?

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