This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler Trump's Iran doom spiral – Where does this end?
Mar 5, 2026
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Middle East security expert at RUSI, explains Iran's strategy and regional ripple effects. She outlines recent strikes and retaliation. She explores internal survival, succession risks, and why any new leadership would need U.S. cooperation. She warns how Iran's actions could push Gulf states closer to the U.S. and raise the danger of a prolonged conflict.
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Early Rapid Escalation Across The Gulf
- The conflict is in an early but rapidly escalating phase with US-Israel strikes and sharp Iranian retaliation across the Gulf.
- Iran struck US bases, civilian and energy infrastructure in neighboring states, surprising analysts with the scale and speed.
Iran Built Decentralized Defenses Against Decapitation
- Iran anticipated decapitation strikes and deliberately decentralized command to maintain resilience.
- The regime adopted a 'mosaic' doctrine to harden multilayered defenses and enable provincial-level responses if leadership was targeted.
Succession Uncertainty But Institutional Continuity
- Despite apparent disarray, Iran retains institutional continuity and has quickly appointed new IRGC leadership.
- A temporary leadership council is running Iran while elite competition and bargaining for succession play out.