HousingWire Daily How is the housing market holding up amid global shocks?
Apr 7, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst focused on housing and mortgage markets, explains how the market is holding up amid wartime economic shocks. He discusses inventory normalizing after COVID, purchase demand reacting to rising rates, and how mortgage spreads cushion headline rates. He also outlines near-term risks from geopolitical tensions and what that means for volatility.
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Use Data Not Headlines To Judge Markets
- Follow data trends rather than headlines when assessing local markets.
- Mohtashami recommends using HousingWire tracker metrics (10-year yield, spreads, pending sales, listings) to read the 'slope of the curve.'
Housing Market Showing Normal Spring Rhythm
- Housing is behaving like a normal spring year despite geopolitical drama, with inventory growth slowing to about 4.67% year over year.
- Logan Mohtashami notes demand has been positive most of the year and purchase-app growth decelerated from 12% to 1% as rates rose toward 6.64%.
Rates Around Six Percent Drive Demand
- Mortgage-rate moves matter: mortgage rates under about 6.25% are the 'sweet spot' for better purchase demand, while rises toward 6.64% slowed growth.
- Mohtashami ties weekly pending sales and purchase-app growth declines directly to the recent rate uptick.