Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Anna Wong
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Dec 18, 2025 Tom Keene and Anna Wong dive into the intricacies of inflation and labor dynamics. Wong connects disinflation trends to shifts in the job market, revealing how a weak labor force can coincide with rising productivity. They discuss lingering inflation worries in housing and medical costs, while considering the implications for Federal Reserve policy. Consumer pressures are examined, with insights on how disinflation may continue, especially as tax season approaches. It's a fascinating exploration of economic conditions and their impact on everyday life.
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Disinflation Reflects Labor Weakness
- Anna Wong links the disinflationary CPI print to underlying labor-market weakness rather than a durable drop in demand.
- She argues firms are losing pricing power because consumers are feeling pinched, which could extend disinflation for months.
Ambiguity Around The CPI Readings
- Tom Keene emphasizes ambiguity in interpreting the CPI print given data gaps from the government shutdown.
- He stresses cautious parsing of components like shelter, medical costs, and airline price moves before drawing firm Fed-policy conclusions.
Weak Hiring Can Coincide With Productivity Gains
- Anna Wong highlights a possible productivity boom driven by static hiring and rising revenues.
- She says weak hiring with rising output implies near-term productivity could spike, boosting Q1 GDP despite labor softness.