On Investing

The Fed’s Balancing Act for 2026 (With Claudia Sahm)

Feb 27, 2026
Claudia Sahm, former Fed and White House Council economist and now chief economist at New Century Advisors. She explains why the Fed is likely to be patient on policy and what to watch in labor data. They probe unusual labor-market patterns, concerns about data quality, and how AI and balance-sheet choices could reshape monetary strategy.
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INSIGHT

Fed Will Wait For Clear Inflation Progress

  • The Fed is likely to remain deliberate and patient, holding rates until clear, consistent inflation progress appears.
  • Claudia Sahm expects the next rate cuts to be triggered by good news on inflation and possibly arrive midyear, not immediately.
INSIGHT

Labor Market Drift Is Historically Unusual

  • The current labor market is unusually calm: unemployment has drifted up slowly without the sharp rise typical of recessions.
  • Sahm notes this gradual 1 percentage point rise post‑pandemic is historically rare and complicates standard models.
INSIGHT

Fed Relies On Big Data Plus Official Stats

  • The Fed uses a huge internal data collection effort and supplements official stats with big‑data projects to read the economy.
  • Sahm emphasizes U.S. government statistics remain world class but require careful interpretation and supplemental sources.
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