The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - March 17, 2026
Mar 17, 2026
Markets ticked up and bond yields eased while pending home sales surprised on the upside. A Fed meeting and PPI report loom with rates likely to stay steady. The show flags three market worries: Iran conflict pricing, private credit default concerns, and a potential slowdown in AI capital spending. It also clarifies what fiduciary duty means compared with broker standards.
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Modestly Positive Market Close With Stable Yields
- Markets were marginally positive with the Dow up 46 points and S&P up 0.25% on the day.
- Ten-year yields traded in a tight 4.15%–4.30% range, closing at 4.20%, signaling calm bond market sentiment.
Housing Shows Early Signs Of Thaw
- February pending home sales surprised materially to the upside, hinting at thawing housing activity.
- Brian Szytel attributes this to slightly lower mortgage rates and five years of pent-up demand after rates rose ~500 bps from zero.
Fed Pause Expected But Dot Plot Is Key
- The Fed was expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% at the meeting conclusion the next day.
- Watch for potential dot-plot adjustments as new geopolitical events are added into policymakers' calculus.