What Bitcoin Did Bitcoin is Undervalued, But the Bottom Isn't In Yet | Rational Root
45 snips
Mar 15, 2026 The Rational Root, on-chain analyst known for Bitcoin cycle charts and newsletters, tackles where we are in the four-year cycle and why on-chain metrics hint at more downside. Short takes on geopolitics, institutional OTC and ETF flows muting price moves. He maps potential bottom formations and explains why a final retest remains possible.
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Geopolitics No Longer Triggers Immediate Bitcoin Crashes
- Bitcoin didn't drop on the Iran war because prior large drawdowns removed marginal sellers.
- The Rational Root says recent crashes made geopolitical catalysts less likely to push price lower, signaling a long bottom formation lasting months.
Personal Encounters With War Refugees Using Crypto
- The Rational Root met Ukrainians who escaped using Bitcoin to move value across borders.
- He relates that in war zones people prefer stablecoins for less volatility but still use crypto for cross-border preservation.
Four Year Cycle Still Dominates Bitcoin's Rhythm
- Bitcoin is still following the historical four-year cycle with yearly RSI and business cycle alignment.
- The Rational Root finds current RSI below 45, a level historically associated with bear market bottoms and continued consolidation.