NatSec Matters The Hormuz Pressure Cooker and Oil Price Roulette: Clay Seigle & Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery
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Mar 18, 2026 
Mark Montgomery, retired Rear Admiral and naval security expert, explains what it takes to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and escort tankers. Clay Siegel, energy-security fellow, outlines how Hormuz disruptions could spike global oil and LNG markets. They discuss strikes on Kharg Island, convoy tactics, mine-clearance challenges, and how military and market moves shape the regional energy squeeze.
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Hormuz Supplies One Fifth Of Global Energy
- The Straits of Hormuz carry about 20% of global oil (20 million bpd) and 20% of LNG, making it a linchpin for world energy security.
- Clay Siegel notes disruptions raise oil, gasoline, and jet fuel prices with broad economic ripple effects if sustained.
Price Depends On Volume And Duration
- Oil price moves depend on disrupted volume and duration; markets price in expectations via futures.
- Clay Siegel warns price volatility will spike to ~$120+/barrel if disruptions persist for weeks as futures discount forward repair time.
Redirects Cut But Do Not Replace Lost Output
- Some Gulf producers have redirected exports via alternate routes, lowering the impacted 20 million bpd to roughly 15 million bpd.
- Clay Siegel cites Saudi east-west pipeline to Yanbu moving ~2.5–3 million bpd as a partial workaround.