Trump, Iran, and the Trajectory of American Empire

In this special episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we step back from the hourly news cycle to examine the deeper historical context of the unfolding crisis between the United States and Iran.

As the situation in the Middle East escalates hour by hour, with consequences nobody can yet predict, it's tempting to get drawn into "hyperpunditry"—the kind of instant analysis that offers certainty where none exists. This podcast takes a different approach. Instead, we explore the historical patterns and structural forces that have brought us to this moment.

From Iraq to Iran: A Trajectory of Decline

We begin by looking back at the planning—or lack thereof—that accompanied the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The neoconservative "Project for a New American Century," drafted in the late 1990s, identified Iran, Iraq, Syria, and North Korea as existential threats requiring regime change. But by the time of the Iraq War, the intellectual and strategic capacity that had characterised post-war occupations like Japan and Germany was conspicuously absent.

The contrast is stark. Post-war Japan was rebuilt under MacArthur with a genuine understanding that creating a stable, pluralistic society required workers' rights, a modern constitution, and the removal of warmongers from power. Iraq, by contrast, was handed to Republican Party loyalists in their twenties with no relevant experience. The disbandment of the Iraqi army—against explicit US Army advice—turned hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers into armed and embittered opponents of the occupation.

As Donald Rumsfeld famously said when the Iraqi National Museum was looted and its ancient treasures destroyed: "Freedom is messy."

The Chancer in Chief

What we are witnessing now is of a category order worse—and arguably stupider. But to focus solely on Donald Trump's personal incompetence would be to miss the deeper picture. Trump is best understood as a "chancer," in some ways comparable to Hitler in the 1930s: testing boundaries, seeing what he can get away with, and becoming increasingly convinced that nobody will stop him.

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani appears to have been a spontaneous decision, based on the assumption that killing one man would be enough. This fundamentally misunderstands the nature of the Islamic Republic, Iranian nationalism, and the regional dynamics of the Middle East. It also ignores the inconvenient fact that the Iran nuclear deal—which Iran was broadly complying with—was torn up by Trump himself.

What Comes Next

The consequences are already unfolding. Iran has abundant missiles and cheap drones. It can, if it chooses, shut down the Persian Gulf, triggering an oil crisis worse than 1973. The long-term loser will be international nuclear non-proliferation: the lesson for any "rogue state" watching is that the North Korea model—acquire a nuclear weapon—is the only reliable protection against the United States.

Meanwhile, Britain finds itself dragged into a war launched on a whim, with no independent foreign policy of its own. Since the Suez Crisis in 1956, Britain has not had an independent foreign policy. Keir Starmer's government has already agreed that America can use British air bases. It remains to be seen whether the British public, with little appetite for this conflict, will accept being drawn in.

Topics covered:

- The neoconservative "Project for a New American Century"

- Post-war planning: Japan (1945) vs. Iraq (2003)

- The disastrous disbandment of the Iraqi army

- Trump as "chancer": Hitler comparisons and their limits

- The assassination of Soleimani and Iranian nationalism

- The wreckage of the Iran nuclear deal

- Regional implications: Hezbollah, Netanyahu, and Turkey

- Britain's role and the legacy of Suez

- The nuclear proliferation lesson for rogue states

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