FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 23 Feb 2026
Feb 22, 2026
Stephen Koukoulas, economist and macro commentator behind thekouk.com. He breaks down what a single-month CPI move can and cannot tell us. He highlights the inflation components the RBA watches and how exchange rates and imports shape prices. He explores business investment trends like data-centre capex and how machinery spending affects productivity, jobs and wages.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Single Month Inflation Numbers Are Not Definitive
- One month's inflation print can't definitively mark a turning point in inflation trends.
- January is seasonally high and heavily influenced by volatile items like petrol, so single-month moves are noisy.
Look At Components Not Just Headline CPI
- Monthly CPI is useful for component-level signals like electricity, healthcare and dwelling rents rather than headline direction.
- Stephen expects headline around 3.7–3.8% and trimmed mean near 3.2% with attention on those high-ticket components.
RBA Watches Services And Non-Tradeables For Policy
- The RBA focuses on private-sector services and non-tradeable costs like insurance, education and electricity as monetary-policy-relevant inflation.
- Imported goods and petrol are more influenced by the exchange rate and excise than by interest rates.