Talks from the Hoover Institution Defending Taiwan: A Strategy To Prevent War With China
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Apr 26, 2026 Ike Freymann, Hoover Fellow and author focused on Indo-Pacific security, outlines strategies to prevent war over Taiwan. He discusses why Taiwan matters, deterring Xi through credible but restrained measures, and countering gray-zone coercion. He also covers allied economic coordination, resilient low-cost defenses for Taiwan, and the need to rebuild critical industrial capacity with partners.
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Why Taiwan Is Strategically Central
- Taiwan matters for democracy, global supply chains, and strategic geography because it makes 90% of advanced semiconductors and anchors the first island chain.
- Losing Taiwan would let China project power across the Pacific and reshape regional economic order, imperiling allies and the U.S. homeland.
Deterring A Leader Not A State
- Deterrence targets Xi Jinping as an individual, so we must signal both we can hold at risk what he values and that we'll exercise restraint.
- Xi balances Taiwan against a broader National Rejuvenation project to 2049, so failure risks undermining his larger goals.
Gray Zone Pressure Is The Bigger Risk
- The gray zone is most worrying because incremental coercion (air incursions, coast guard pressure, legal harassment) can be normalized if unmet with consequences.
- Amphibious invasion is hard; persistent low‑level pressure offers China an easier pathway to change the status quo.
