Coffee and a Mike Karl Denninger aka The Ticker Guy #1339
Mar 23, 2026
Karl Denninger, author and operator of market-ticker.org, offers sharp economic and geopolitical commentary. He discusses Iran’s nuclear claims and spent fuel risks. He covers shipping and tanker vulnerabilities, energy and fertilizer priorities, and how conflicts create cost-push inflation. He also delves into fiscal stress, private credit fragility, and limits on sustained ground wars.
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Why Iran's Nuclear Claims Don't Equal A Bomb
- Iran's reported uranium enrichment does not equal a usable bomb because ~60% enriched uranium and power-reactor plutonium are unsuitable for weapons.
- Karl Denninger explains physics: weapons need high enrichment or specially short-cycled reactors and dedicated reprocessing facilities like Israel's Dimona, not civilian power plants.
Spent Fuel As A Geopolitical Weapon
- Spent fuel presents a strategic weapon: dispersing reactor waste creates long-lasting contamination rather than a classic explosive attack.
- Denninger details how grinding spent fuel into a conventional munition would spread isotopes that make land uninhabitable for millennia.
Ban Fuel Exports Immediately During Energy Shocks
- Do ban petroleum exports immediately during a Middle East energy shock to keep domestic fuel and fertilizer feedstocks in the U.S.
- Denninger argues Trump had authority (DPA) and that keeping exports would prevent domestic price spikes and protect fertilizer/DEF supply.