Paul Krugman, a renowned economist and NY Times columnist, joins forces with James Steel, HSBC's Chief Commodities Analyst, and John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co. They explore the current tariff landscape, focusing on uncertainties impacting both trade and the economy. The guests discuss how rising import prices pose risks to productivity and investment. With insights on commodity trends, including gold's fluctuating value, they analyze strategies investors can leverage amid the chaos of international trade challenges.
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insights INSIGHT
Remaking International Order
The Trump administration's tariff policy aims to restructure the global economic order.
However, the US trade deficit is primarily due to attracting foreign capital, not inherent flaws in the system.
insights INSIGHT
Non-Linear Impact of Tariffs
The negative impact of tariffs isn't proportional to their value, but to their square.
This means a 20% tariff is four times worse than a 10% tariff.
insights INSIGHT
Recession Risk from Uncertainty
While tariffs don't typically cause recessions, the current uncertainty might trigger one.
Under normal conditions, tariffs mainly decrease productivity, not employment.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 8th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Dr. Paul Krugman, economist and long time NY Times columnist, joins for an extended discussion about tariffs, trade wars, and DOGE. Investors remain on edge over tariff policy, inflation, and potential labor disruptions, as President Trump recently threatened to impose an additional 50% import tax on China if it doesn't pull back from its plan to impose retaliatory levies on American goods. 2) John Stoltzfus, Chief Investment Strategist at Oppenheimer & Co., joins to discuss lowering his highest-on-Wall Street S&P target and whether he believes equities will bounce back in 2025. Investors remain flummoxed after President Trump's recent remarks and those of his advisers have created confusion and volatility in markets, with investors struggling to understand his negotiating criteria and the lack of a streamlined process for considering exceptions to the tariffs. 3) Ellen Wald, Senior Fellow - Atlantic Council, discusses oil dropping below $60 a barrel, hitting a four-year-low, and outlook for global energy. Goldman Sachs analysts recently estimated that Brent oil could fall below $40 a barrel in late 2026 under "extreme" outcomes, including a global GDP slowdown and a full unwind of OPEC+ cuts. 4) Libby Cantrill, Managing Director: Public Policy at PIMCO, discusses the Trump administration's tariff policies and the components that are here to stay. Anxiety is growing on Wall Street that Donald Trump's actions might break the economy and key parts of the financial markets. Despite a slight easing of the US stock selloff, there are few signs of optimism, and investors are desperate for any sign of tariff relief. 5) James Steel, Chief Commodities Analyst at HSBC, joins for an extended discussion on gold's record rise and whether it will be the safe haven amid tariff uncertainty. With volatility surging as $10 trillion wiped off global equities after the US unveiled sweeping tariffs last week, gold pushed higher yesterday.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
