Saxo Market Call Market celebrating Trump's seeming desperation to pull US out of Iran war.
18 snips
Mar 25, 2026 Markets cheer signs that the US may push for a quick wind-down in Iran tensions, while regional responses remain mixed and uncertain. Oil flows, shipping delays and physical supply lags get close attention. Tech stocks face renewed pressure, especially software-as-a-service names. There's also a quick look at macro indicators, Treasury-oil correlations and the Danish election aftermath.
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Markets Cheer Trump's Quick Peace Push
- Markets are pricing a quick US push to end the Iran conflict as bullish for energy flows and risk assets.
- John Hardy highlights a 15-point Trump proposal and market relief despite deep substantive gaps with Iran and regional players.
Energy Shortages Linger After Any Quick Deal
- Physical energy disruptions will persist for weeks even if diplomacy moves fast because cargoes already en route take long to reach consumers.
- John Hardy uses VLCC sail times (~19 days) and unloading/refining delays to explain lagged supply effects.
SaaS Stocks Diverge From Broader Market
- Markets show a divergence: broad indices flat while mega-cap software and SaaS names sell off sharply.
- John Hardy links the latest drop to a new anthropic agent release hurting Microsoft, Adobe and Salesforce sentiment.