FEAR & GREED | Business News Q+A: The Week Ahead | 26 Jan 2026
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Jan 25, 2026 Stephen Koukoulas, economist and commentator known as 'The Kook', provides quick, sharp analysis on monetary policy, inflation and the labour market. He previews the December CPI and why the trimmed mean matters. He discusses strong jobs data, labour-market pressure on rates, and the key inflation components to watch this quarter.
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Trimmed Mean Drives RBA Decision
- The December quarter trimmed mean inflation is the key number that will influence the RBA's decision next week.
- Stephen Koukoulas says about 0.8% quarterly trimmed mean would significantly raise the chance of a rate hike.
Strong Jobs Report Increases RBA Pressure
- The December jobs report showed unexpectedly strong employment and a fall in unemployment to 4.1%.
- Stephen Koukoulas says the strong labour market increases pressure on the RBA to consider tightening.
Offsets In Goods Prices Mask Inflation Direction
- Some goods prices (petrol, many food items) are easing while others (jewellery) are rising due to precious metal moves.
- This mix creates offsetting effects in the CPI, making small component moves impactful on the quarterly outcome.