HousingWire Daily How war with Iran could affect mortgage rates
7 snips
Mar 3, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in housing and mortgage markets, breaks down how a war with Iran could shift the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. Short, clear takes on oil, shipping and insurance risks. Discussion of inflation signals, Fed commentary and which economic reports really move markets.
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Markets Are Not Pricing A Full Iran Escalation
- The market hasn't fully priced in a prolonged Iran conflict so bond yields and mortgage rates have only moved modestly.
- Logan Mohtashami notes 10-year yield dropped to 3.92% then rose to ~4.05% while mortgages moved from 5.99% to 6.12%, signalling limited reaction so far.
Key Triggers That Would Drive Rates Higher
- Escalation would push oil, raise insurance costs, disrupt shipping and lift yields further if Strait of Hormuz risks increase.
- Mohtashami highlights WTI above $80 or 10-year back to ~4.30% as thresholds that would materially change mortgage pricing.
Economic Data Still Dominates Rate Direction
- Economic data may matter more than geopolitical noise for the Fed and long-term yields.
- Mohtashami points to hot PPI, ISM Prices Paid and low jobless claims as drivers that could lift the 10-year despite the Iran story.