The Real Eisman Playbook The Iran War Crisis: Ex-CIA Analyst Helima Croft on Oil Shock & Energy Risk | The Weekly Wrap
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Mar 13, 2026 Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC and former CIA analyst on energy and Middle East affairs, breaks down Iran's responses and the impact on oil markets. She discusses Strait of Hormuz disruptions, spare capacity limits, and a critical two-week tipping point. Short-term supply fixes and the risks of mission creep and broader regional fallout are central topics.
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Straits Of Hormuz Has Become A Shipping Parking Lot
- The Straits of Hormuz closure is causing a near-total halt of normal tanker traffic and major supply disruption risk.
- Normally 60–100 ships transit daily; current flows resemble a parking lot with many cargoes effectively stuck and exports blocked.
Stockpile Releases Only Buy Weeks Not Months
- Global stockpile releases can only cushion disrupted supply for a short period, not months.
- Coordinated IEA, U.S., European and Asian releases might buy a couple of weeks; a month is possible only with favorable ship movements.
U.S. SPR Cushion Is Much Smaller Than Expected
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels are far lower than before due to prior releases, reducing emergency cushion.
- The SPR sits around 400 million barrels after large drawdowns post-Ukraine; not refilling leaves limited shock absorbers.