HousingWire Daily Does the ceasefire give housing room to grow?
9 snips
Apr 9, 2026 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst who tracks mortgage markets and interest-rate dynamics, joins the conversation. He breaks down how the ceasefire moved the 10-year yield and bond market. He explains the low-level yield 'bull' concept and why oil and yields can diverge. He reviews purchase-application trends and how the Fed reads jobs, inflation, and geopolitical shifts.
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10-Year Yield Diverged From Oil Spike
- The 10-year yield fell back into a low-level channel despite oil briefly spiking above $117.
- Logan Mohtashami points out yields never revisited yearly highs while oil did, showing a divergence between oil and bond yields.
Oil Prices Aren't Destiny For Mortgage Rates
- Oil price moves don't directly determine mortgage rates; the 10-year yield, mortgage spreads, and Fed policy matter more.
- Mohtashami notes past periods (2011–2014) with high oil yet low mortgage rates, emphasizing spreads and policy role.
Economy Has Weathered Multiple Shocks Since 2011
- The U.S. economy has withstood multiple shocks since 2011, including COVID and oil shocks, keeping expansions intact until now.
- Mohtashami notes retail sales and private credit haven't cascaded into broader credit failure.