What the fadeout effect means for testing, accountability, and school choice | Episode 1008 of The Education Gadfly Show

Drew Bailey, professor at the University of California, Irvine, joins The Education Gadfly Show to discuss the fadeout effect across education interventions. Why do early treatment effects shrink over time, and what does that mean for judging program success, especially when test score gains diminish but long-term outcomes like graduation rates and earnings persist? We also debate the role of test scores in accountability, the evidence linking school value-added to real-world success, and what this all means for the role of testing in school choice initiatives.

Then on the Research Minute, Amber Northern examines new data on how states define “proficiency” in reading and math and what NAEP reveals about rigor, transparency, and the debate over standards.

Recommended content:

• Why Do Most Education Interventions Fade Out Over Time? —Drew Bailey, Tyler Watts, and Emma Hart, Education Next
• School Choice, Test Scores and Long-Term Outcomes: The Evidence Is Ambiguous —Michael J Petrilli, Education Next
• Reducing Inequality through Dynamic Complementarity: Evidence from Head Start and Public School Spending —Rucker C. Johnson and C. Kirabo Johnson, American Economic Journal
• A future for IES? —Chester E. Finn, Jr., Thomas B. Fordham Institute
• Mapping State Proficiency Standards Onto the NAEP Scales Results From the 2022 NAEP Reading and Mathematics Assessments —Darrick Shen-Wei Yee and Brian Cramer, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics (2026)

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