The Story What happens when Britain's population starts to shrink?
Feb 11, 2026
Tom Calver, Data editor at The Times and author on Britain’s population trends, outlines falling birth rates and a possible reversal of migration. He explores why fertility is plunging and how emigration spikes were hidden in payroll data. He discusses the fiscal and political consequences of an ageing, shrinking population and the limits of policy to change family choices.
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Recent Migration Spike Has Already Reversed
- Net migration spiked to about 940,000 in 2023 then fell to roughly 200,000 after revisions and recent falls.
- Current trends and visa applications suggest net migration could be negative by year-end.
Policy Shifts Slashed Visa Applications
- Recent policy tightening (care workers, salary thresholds, graduate requirements) cut visa applications sharply.
- Health and social care visas fell from 18,000 in Aug 2023 to about 600 by December.
Emigration Higher Than Previously Thought
- The ONS now estimates emigration using payroll exits and finds more people leaving than previously measured.
- A notable share are earlier Eastern European arrivals returning as home economies improve.
