Wall Of Worry Puts Stocks At Risk Of Screaming Higher On Any Good News | Lance Roberts

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Mar 28, 2026

Lance Roberts, portfolio manager and market analyst known for macro and technical market commentary. He explores how market fear could spark a sharp reflexive rally on any good news. They discuss oil and Iran implications, rising yields and credit spreads, technical rules like the 200‑day moving average, and recent portfolio adjustments and trading ideas.

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ADVICE

Raise Cash And Build A Shopping List For The Bounce

Prepare a shopping list of high-quality names with strong forward earnings to buy when market technicals improve.
Lance keeps cash ready and identifies growth stocks trading at value multiples (e.g., Microsoft at ~18x PE vs ~26% earnings growth).

INSIGHT

Brief 200DMA Whipsaws Tend To Recover Faster

Historical returns differ markedly between brief (<4 weeks) and sustained (>4 weeks) 200DMA breaks: brief breaks typically recover within months.
Lance's table shows sustained breaks produced negative average one-month returns (~-5.3%).

INSIGHT

Credit Spreads Rising But Not At Crisis Levels

Credit spreads and CDX have ticked up to nine-month highs, signaling rising stress but still well below crisis extremes.
Lance stresses the long-term level of spreads remains compressed despite recent upticks, so contagion risk isn't yet at panic levels.

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There is so much short-term worry in the financial markets right now, that even a whiff of good news could send stocks into a face-ripping rally claims portfolio manager Lance Roberts.That's not to say there still aren't reasons to be concerned that lower prices may lie ahead.But don't ignore the reflexible upward potential of stock prices given how dominant the fear trade has been over the past few weeks.Lance and I discuss the odds of such a rally, plus discuss rising credit spreads, rising bond yields, high oil prices and other implications of the Iran war. And of course, we discuss Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#oilprice #iranwar #inflation _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.