Reversing Climate Change 391: How Carbon Removal Loses: The End of "Pre-Compliance"
The foundational assumption of carbon removal has been the "pre-compliance" story—that the voluntary carbon market and early corporate offtakes are necessary but not sufficient, and that we're all waiting for compliance to automate demand. That story depends on Japan, Canada, the EU, and the UK carrying the torch while the US sits on the sidelines heckling.
In this monologue episode, I walk through why I no longer think that story holds. Right-wing populism is surging across every country the pre-compliance story depends on. Energy prices are climbing. Growth is stalling. And voters facing rising costs and security threats don't prioritize abstract, probabilistic, future-oriented problems no matter how catastrophic those problems actually are.
This isn't a doom episode. It's a planning episode. If you work on anything strategic in carbon removal or climate tech, you need a clear-eyed view of what the world is actually doing—and a plan for what your company looks like if the world doesn't regress to the mean.
"If you want to make an omelette, you've got to break a few eggs."
- Joseph Stalin
"Where's the omelette?"
- George Orwell
This Episode's Sponsors
Rainbow: a developer-centric carbon removal registry
"Why carbon markets need field engineers, not just scientists" on Rainbow
"What scientists actually do in carbon removal" on rosskenyon.com
Resources
Subscribe to the Reversing Climate Change Substack
338: Carbon Security and the Geopolitics of Carbon Removal—w/ Sarah Godek
364: Lowering the Onion into Hell: Strategic Realism vs. Christian Pacifism
Gilets Jaunes (yellow jackets)