Future of Financial Literacy and Smart Investing 

Jul 30, 2025

Dive into a discussion on the future of financial literacy and smart investing. Discover the risks of adding QQQ to investment portfolios and the lessons learned from historical market crashes. Explore the benefits of global diversification versus focusing on U.S. markets. Compare small-cap value performance against the S&P 500 and uncover the trade-offs of using Avantis and DFA for deeper diversification. Learn tax-smart rebalancing strategies and the best portfolios to consider for long-term growth.

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ANECDOTE

The 1966–1983 Whipsaw Experience

From 1966 to 1983 the market repeatedly whipsawed between highs and lows, eroding investor confidence.
Paul recalls how long downtrends favored trend-following systems and traumatized buy-and-hold timers.

INSIGHT

International Allocation Affects Volatility Timing

Moving between 50/50 and 70/30 U.S./international changes timing of gains but not much long-term return.
Global diversification mainly shifts volatility and the timing of good/bad years, not average returns.

INSIGHT

Small‑Cap Value Premium Varies Over Time

Small-cap value outperformed the S&P 500 strongly from 1975–1999 but the premium was smaller from 2000–2025.
Historical premiums vary by period, so future premiums are uncertain despite academic support.

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On this special Q&A episode—recorded July 29 2025—Paul Merriman gears up for his August 2 keynote at the Garrett Planning Network Retreat, where he will address more than 100 hourly financial advisors about the future of financial literacy. He invites listeners to email questions for the panel (paul@paulmerriman.com) and then dives into ten wide‑ranging listener questions that benefit investors of every age and stage.

What you’ll learn

Adding QQQ to the 10‑Fund “Ultimate Buy‑and‑Hold” portfolio: upside vs. hidden downside.
Toughest markets Paul has faced—from the 1966–1981 whipsaw to the 1987 crash—and the timeless lessons they teach.
Global diversification in 2025: 50/50 vs. 70/30 U.S./international and why volatility, not return, drives the decision. Table B4, Table B3a and Table B3b
Small‑Cap Value vs. S&P 500 performance: 1975‑1999’s 5 % premium, 2000‑2025’s 2.6 % edge, and what it means going forward.
Avantis + DFA split for deeper diversification (cost, holdings, tracking error).
Risks of an all‑Small‑Cap‑Value portfolio and when a worldwide all‑value approach makes more sense.
Using DFA International Small‑Cap Value (DFISX) inside a 403(b) for a Two‑Fund strategy.
Vanguard STAR vs. Vanguard Wellington: balanced‑fund showdown and why Wellington’s 60/40 mix wins in the long run.
Rebalancing at age 62: tax‑smart moves, asset‑location tactics, and simplifying with target‑date or balanced funds.
Anatomy of the Ultimate Buy‑and‑Hold strategy: 10 equity asset classes, why it started in 1994‑95, and how four‑ and two‑fund variations stack up. Sound Investing Portfolio Returns (1970-2024) 50/50 and Sound Investing Portfolio Returns (1970-2024) 70/30

Paul backs every takeaway with real‑world data—from DFA, Avantis, Vanguard, and Russell indexes—illustrating how disciplined asset allocation can tame the brutal drawdowns that crush performance when investors chase recent winners. You’ll hear why trend‑following protected clients in 1987, how dividends rescued returns in the 1966–1981 “go‑nowhere” market, and why low‑cost indexing plus global value exposure remain his bedrock recommendations.

Got a question for Paul’s hourly‑advisor panel? Email it before July 31 and help shape the conversation on transparent, client‑first advice.

Listen now to sharpen your strategy—whether you’re building wealth, 20 years from retirement, or fine‑tuning a 50/50 portfolio in your 60s.