Rebecca Patterson, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses how Israel's strike on Iran could reshape market dynamics and the role of Treasuries and the Dollar as safe havens. Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute, provides insights on escalating tensions and potential regional crises. Matt Luzzetti, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, analyzes implications for U.S. monetary policy and the economy as geopolitical risks rise. They explore how these events could impact oil prices and the broader global economy.
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insights INSIGHT
Iran's Political Stability in Question
Iran's political leadership is weakened but faces severe internal and external pressures.
Economic hardships and regime unpopularity create opportunity for internal unrest.
insights INSIGHT
Oil Price Risks With Conflict Escalation
Oil prices could rise moderately to $75 or surge to $130 if Strait of Hormuz closes.
Closure of Strait would cause a major stagflationary shock globally, though low probability.
insights INSIGHT
Europe More Vulnerable to Energy Shocks
Europe is more vulnerable than the U.S. to energy supply disruptions.
U.S. economy has uncertainty but remains relatively resilient compared to Europe.
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 13th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Tina Fordham, founder at Fordham Global Foresight, joins for a discussion on the reshaped geopolitical landscape after Israel's strike on Iran. The conflict could impact oil prices, with scenarios ranging from a moderate increase to $75 per barrel if Iran's oil facilities are attacked, to a more extreme scenario of $130 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The US's role in the conflict is uncertain, with possible scenarios including Tehran trying to keep the US out of the war, symbolic attacks against the US, or Iran targeting US positions in the region. 2) Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, on Israel striking Iran and the consequences for the US and Middle East. The attacks risk plunging the Middle East into crisis, hitting the global economy, and escalating into a broader regional conflict, with the US and other nations calling for diplomatic de-escalation. 3) Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater Associates, discusses the potential for Treasuries and the Dollar becoming a safe haven amid Middle East tensions and whether US exceptionalism is fading. Treasuries rose due to escalating Israel-Iran tensions, strong auctions, and cooling inflation data, with yields falling 1-2 basis points across the curve. 4) Gautam Mukunda, Professor at Yale School of Management and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses the US' role in the Israel-Iran conflict and how it could affect the upcoming Iran Nuclear Deal talks. President Trump urges Iran to accept a nuclear deal to avoid further attacks, after Israel bombed Iran's atomic facilities and killed top commanders. Israel struck around 100 targets across Iranian cities, causing oil prices to surge and investors to buy havens, and Iran responded with a wave of drones towards Israel. 5) Matt Luzzetti, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, talks about the changing US economic outlook amid rising Middle East tensions. Treasuries rose due to escalating Israel-Iran tensions, strong auctions, and cooling inflation data, with yields falling 1-2 basis points across the curve. duropean government bonds initially jumped but then reversed gains as focus turned to the impact of higher oil prices on inflation.
Bloomberg Surveillance