The Bunker – News without the nonsense Has Iran won the Iran War? – Start Your Week with Gavin Esler
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Mar 23, 2026 A tense look at Trump’s dilemma over the Iran conflict and whether Tehran is gaining strategic advantage. Exploration of economic fallout from oil shocks and possible cost-of-living pain. Debate over the UK’s role, intelligence cooperation and political consequences at home. Coverage of misinformation and missile scares, plus a swirl of cultural and political flashpoints this week.
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Trump Painted Himself Into A Military Corner
- Donald Trump's Iran strategy has backfired by entangling the US without achieving core objectives.
- Gavin Esler argues the conflict is stuck: Iran remains intact, decentralised, and impossible to decapitate without full invasion, which no one wants.
Iran Holds The Energy Choke Point
- Iran has turned asymmetric leverage into strategic advantage by threatening vital regional infrastructure.
- Andrew Harrison notes Tehran can threaten the Strait of Hormuz and destroy essential infrastructure if energy sites are hit, constraining US options.
Sanctions Suspension Fuels The Enemy
- The US suspended sanctions on Iranian oil to release barrels already at sea, effectively putting oil from the conflict back on the market.
- Gavin Esler highlights the paradox that Washington is, in effect, funding the country it is fighting by allowing those shipments.