FSD: Hope Springs Eternal

Mar 31, 2026

41:40

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Episode notes

00:00 - The Psychology of Hope and "All That Glitters"

02:40 - The Tesla Trajectory and Sentiment Gauges

04:04 - Cultural Perspectives on Hope: US vs. Europe

04:52 - Trading Reality vs. Expectations: The Two-Day Rule

06:44 - The Great De-grossing: Record Margin Debt and Institutional Unwinding

08:42 - The BlackRock Shift: From Consensus to Neutral

10:33 - Phase 4 Mistakes: Why "Buying the Dip" is Failing

14:23 - Portfolio Updates: Picking up Meta, Microsoft, and Berkshire

17:00 - Geopolitical Realities: The Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz

24:22 - Historical Lessons: Kinetics, Surrender, and Miscalculations

27:33 - Fundamentals vs. Positioning: The Micron and Nvidia Paradox

31:14 - Price Targets and the Next Bull Move: Consumer Discretionary

34:27 - Recenter Your Mind: Lessons from Jesse Livermore and Market History

37:12 - Beyond the Spreadsheet: The Fusion of Psychology and Position

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