Fill The Gap: The Official Podcast of CMT Association

Episode 62: Weight of the Evidence with Keith Lerner, CMT, CFA

Mar 6, 2026
Keith Lerner, CIO and Chief Market Strategist at Truist Advisory Services, shares his 'weight of the evidence' framework blending history, economics, fundamentals, and technicals. He explains when technicals should carry extra weight, how checklists force accountability, and why rapid sector and global rotations demand flexible tactical tilts. Practical portfolio examples and communication around volatility complete the conversation.
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ADVICE

Accept Being Wrong And Update Quickly

  • Expect to change your view as data evolves and be transparent about it with clients.
  • Keith trains his team to accept being wrong and adapt quickly instead of stubbornly holding positions.
ADVICE

Reset Positions With A Blank Sheet Exercise

  • Run a blank-sheet exercise: design your portfolio from scratch to challenge legacy positions.
  • Keith says this frees teams from sunk-cost bias and often leads to actionable allocation changes.
ANECDOTE

How A Wrong Call Turned Into A Quick Reposition

  • Keith recounts downgrading equities in Feb and trimming after the snapback, then quickly adding back when economy and valuations proved resilient.
  • The episode showed how digging into earnings and concentration (7–10 names) changed their view.
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