TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast #738: The Dollar Empire Is Just Beginning with Capital Flows
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Apr 22, 2026 
Jeremiah of Capital Flows, a macro and markets researcher focused on credit cycles and cross-border capital flows, discusses how duration and credit risk shape asset prices. He breaks down dollar reserve mechanics, liquidity-driven equity melt-ups, FX and positioning dynamics, risks that could reverse markets, and emerging opportunities in DeFi, perpetuals, and space technology.
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Assets Are Priced By Credit And Duration
- Markets are now priced primarily by two risks: credit risk (probability of receiving nominal cash flows) and duration risk (inflation/real rate erosion of those cash flows).
- Jeremiah uses models mapping macro data to assets, arguing post-COVID regimes require focusing on rates and FX rather than naive valuation narratives.
Dollar Reserve Status Drives Asset Melt Ups
- Dollar reserve status and cross-border capital flows are a central driver behind record-high US equity valuations and Bitcoin's rise.
- Jeremiah links foreign dollar demand, global trade liquidity, and positioning to why low-quality equities and tech rallies persist.
Real Rates Explain Bitcoin And Equity Cycles
- Real interest rates drove Bitcoin's 2021 highs (negative real rates) and subsequent moves; falling real rates this year are fueling liquidity into equities again.
- Oil shocks injected spending power that required tighter rates to prevent liquidity flooding markets.